Safe Lay Formula For Testing Lay Betting Systems
There are literally hundreds of laying systems available on the internet all being sold through shiny web sites promising you overnight riches because of their extremely high strike rate! Well, maybe there telling the truth but maybe there is more to meet the eye.
Here we have the safe lay formula that will help you test betting systems claims.
Whenever we are asked to review a laying system or tipster service, We always apply the Safe Lay Formula to make sure that the risk/reward ratio is acceptable and that in the worst case scenario the system will break even in the long run. The formula is very simple and is used to determine the break even betting exchange lay price.
So say for example, a laying system boasts an impressive 90% strike rate which means that out of every 100 bets you place will give 90 winners for you so lets say 90 points. If using Betfair as most lay better do, they will deduct 5% commission from the 90 points, leaving you with 85.50 points.
This leaves 10 losing bets. Therefore, the break even lay price is the net point gain divided by the number of losing bets + 1.
85.5/10 = 8.55 + 1 = 9.55
So, in this example, the maximum lay price you should take is 9.55.
This will ensure that you will at least break even in the long term. To ensure a profit you should take a lower price, perhaps 8.50 or thereabouts.
So if the laying system claims to have a 90% strike rate but their results show an average lay price that is longer (greater) than 9.55, that system is highly unlikely to be profitable in the long term. By long term, I suggest a track record of at least 12 months to include a full racing calendar.
What is important is to analyse both the strike rate and the break even price with the historical results.
Many systems are sold on the strength of their strike rate, yet include results showing they layed horses at prices of 12, 15, 20 or even longer! These systems require either a perfect 100% strike rate or a loss recovery staking plan to compensate for the longer priced winners that will occur from time to time.
There is nothing wrong with using a non aggressive staking plan as indeed I do on a couple of my own laying systems but, in my opinion, any racing system must be proven at level stakes without the need to employ the higher risk strategy often required by loss recovery staking plans.
Good luck with all your betting and if you have any questions please ask below.